With NASA having recently accelerated its timeline for building permanent habitats on the Moon, scores of scientists are focused on tackling the myriad technological challenges associated with lunar habitation.
But what of the psychological hurdle that awaits the first long-term lunar dwellers?
A team of researchers from George Mason University in Virginia, US, has developed a new model to simulate the team dynamics and group behaviours associated with long-term space travel.
In a paper published in PLOS One, they argue that tackling the behavioral risks of long-term space travel could be just as important as the engineering challenges.
In an interview with Refractor, study lead Raymond Vera claimed that “a catastrophic scenario might begin with something as simple as interpersonal conflict, declining morale, or repeated task failures among astronaut agents.”
Simulating space psychology
One of the main goals of NASA’s Artemis program is to establish a permanent human presence on the Moon. In theory, that will serve as a stepping stone for further exploration of the Solar System, including Mars.
A host of companies, including SpaceX, Blue Origin, Lunar Outpost, and many others, are building the technologies to make this possible. However, the success of the Artemis program will also largely rest on the first humans to explore the lunar south pole.
It won’t be an easy task. These astronauts will be isolated from home for months as they explore the rough, unforgiving terrain of the Moon’s southern region.
This will put a great psychological strain on NASA’s Artemis astronauts. While intensive selection processes will ensure the best people are selected for the job, Vera and colleagues believe it is important to prepare for potential behavioral challenges.
The team developed a new agent-based model (ABM), or simulation, that played out the personal dynamics of astronaut teams living on the lunar surface.
For their study, they ran tens of thousands of simulations on their new model before analyzing the outcomes. Unsurprisingly, they found that larger crews had a better chance of success due to better chances of personality compatibility. However, the longer a mission ran, the more likely the cracks would start to show.
When the stakes are so high, interpersonal conflict or declining morale could snowball into a disastrous outcome, Vera explained to Refractor.
“Through feedback loops, these problems can compound over time, reducing maintenance, resource production, and operational effectiveness until the crew faces shortages of critical resources such as air, water, or food,” he said. “In an extreme case, these nonlinear effects could cascade into mission failure or even loss of life.”
Sims in space
The team’s simulation incorporated challenges associated with lunar exploration. On top of that, the researchers drew from psychological findings from historical crewed space missions, as well as those of teams working in extreme Earth environments when building the model.
One of the key studies they drew from “followed a team of scientists and engineers that spent over 100 days in Antarctica's Lambert Glacier Basin in mobile living quarters,” Vera told Refractor, adding that the NASA-supported research shared many characteristics with a lunar base mission, including “isolation, confinement, environmental hazards, and heavy reliance on teamwork”.
All of this allowed the model to simulate a complex web of social, emotional, and cognitive factors that will come into play in future Moon missions.
In practise, the team’s ABM works a little like Sims in space, as virtual astronauts are characterized by a set of traits, including personality, professional skills, and physical health.
“In a sense, ABMs are similar to social simulation games, except the goal is to scientifically explore potential outcomes under various initial conditions and multiple interactions instead of entertainment purposes alone,” Vera said.
“They are particularly useful for studying complex systems, where small decisions and interactions can combine to produce unexpected outcomes through feedback loops and emergence,” he continued.
Essentially, each virtual astronaut adapted over time in response to interpersonal dynamics as well as environmental factors. They learn and improve, but they are also impacted by challenges and setbacks.
Ultimately, the team found that their model could help plan future moon missions to improve the chances of mission success. When future Artemis astronauts look back at Earth, their morale may also be boosted by the notion that NASA considered every possible permutation of their stay on the Moon.
This research was published in PLOS One
Fact-checked by Mike McRae
